Why Focus on Time in the Market, Not Timing the Market

by Conor J. Green

 

When it comes to the big decision of buying a home—should you pull the trigger now or hold off? It's a question that weighs heavily on many minds today. While the answer depends on various personal factors, there's a fundamental principle you might not have fully considered yet.

The Downside of Trying to Time the Market

Attempting to time the market—waiting for the perfect moment when mortgage rates drop or prices dip—often proves to be a futile effort. Market conditions can swiftly change, influenced by economic shifts and unforeseen events. For instance, despite earlier projections of decreasing mortgage rates, recent developments have postponed this decline, leaving prospective buyers who waited in a tough spot.

As U.S. News points out, "Those who put off buying a home during the past few years as they were holding out for lower mortgage rates have been left out of the market . . . mortgage rates have stayed higher for longer than previously expected, keeping monthly housing payments elevated."

The Proof Is in the Pudding: How Homeowners Benefit from Rising Prices

Moreover, delaying your purchase means missing out on potential equity growth. Consider this scenario: if you had bought a $400,000 home earlier this year, projections suggest you could gain over $83,000 in wealth over the next five years. This potential gain underscores why being in the market matters more than trying to time market fluctuations.

 
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To give these numbers context, let’s take a look at a breakdown of what you stand to gain once you buy. The graph below uses a typical home’s value to show how a home could appreciate over the next few years using those HPES projections: 
 
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Advice for Those Ready to Buy Now

If you're currently fixated on mortgage rates and their impact on your monthly payments, don't overlook the trajectory of home prices. While prices are expected to rise steadily, albeit moderately, this growth will significantly benefit homeowners in the long run.

According to experts surveyed by Fannie Mae, home prices are anticipated to continue their upward trend through at least 2028. This gradual increase may not seem advantageous in the short term, but once you've secured a home, it translates into substantial equity growth—an essential aspect of being in the market.

Making the Decision

Sure, you could wait for the perfect moment when rates drop or prices stabilize, but the potential equity you stand to lose in the interim is a crucial factor to consider. If you have the means and readiness to buy now, ask yourself: is it truly worth delaying?

As U.S. News Real Estate wisely summarizes, "Perfectly timing the market shouldn't be the goal. This decision should be determined by your personal needs, financial means, and the time you have to find the right home."

Bottom Line

If you're grappling with the decision of whether to buy now or wait, remember: it's about time in the market, not timing the market. To capitalize on potential equity gains and secure your future in real estate, take the proactive step forward. Let's connect and turn your homeownership goals into reality.

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