Why Home Sales Soar After Presidential Elections: What You Need to Know About the Market Trend

 

With the 2024 U.S. Presidential election fast approaching, many are asking how it will affect the housing market. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, you’re probably wondering whether election-year uncertainty will throw a wrench into your plans—or if it might actually present an opportunity.

Here’s the good news: election years often lead to temporary slowdowns in home sales, but these dips are usually short-lived. In fact, history shows that home sales tend to bounce back strongly after Election Day. Let’s break it down and explore why this happens, and what you can expect from the housing market in 2025.

Why Home Sales Slow Down During Election Years

Before we dive into the post-election bounce, let’s first understand why home sales slow down in the lead-up to an election.

 

Seasonal Slowdowns: A Natural Trend

In any given year, home sales typically experience a slight dip during the fall. As the weather cools down and people shift their focus to the holidays, fewer buyers and sellers are eager to make major decisions. But in election years, this slowdown tends to be a bit more pronounced.

The Power of Uncertainty

The main culprit behind this deeper-than-usual dip is uncertainty. As Election Day approaches, many consumers put major life decisions on hold while they wait to see how the political landscape will shift. This is particularly true for big decisions like buying or selling a home, which often come with significant financial commitments.

A recent survey by Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers are holding off on purchasing a home until after the election. That’s nearly one in four first-time buyers who are waiting for the election results before making a move. With so much uncertainty surrounding the economy, policies, and interest rates, many buyers are opting for caution, which causes a temporary slowdown in the housing market.

The Impact on Sellers

Sellers, too, tend to hesitate during election years. Many worry that potential buyers will be too distracted or uncertain to commit. Others may hold off on listing their homes, hoping for a clearer picture of the economic landscape after the election. All of this leads to fewer homes on the market, which can intensify the slowdown.

How Home Sales Rebound After the Election

The good news is that this temporary dip in sales isn’t permanent. In fact, historical data shows that home sales tend to bounce back strongly after the election is over. Why? Once the election results are in and the dust settles, both buyers and sellers feel more confident about the future. The uncertainty that had been weighing on their decisions lifts, and they’re more willing to re-enter the market.

 

Post-Election Confidence Boost

Historically, home sales have increased 82% of the time in the year following a presidential election. This is a remarkable trend that demonstrates how the housing market tends to regain its momentum once political uncertainty fades.

Buyers and sellers alike are more likely to make decisions when they have a better sense of what lies ahead—whether that’s in terms of government policies, interest rates, or overall economic stability. The shift from uncertainty to clarity often creates a sense of relief, which drives a surge in real estate activity.

What This Means for You as a Buyer or Seller

If you’re planning to buy or sell, this rebound in home sales is good news. If you wait until after the election, you can expect a more stable and predictable market. Buyers, knowing the results of the election, can plan more confidently. Sellers, on the other hand, can take advantage of the influx of buyers looking to make their move once the political noise dies down.

The Housing Market Outlook for 2025

Looking ahead, all signs point to a solid year for the housing market in 2025. If history holds true, home sales are set to pick up significantly once the election-related uncertainty dissipates.

Sales Projections for 2025

According to recent forecasts, 2024 is projected to see around 4.6 million home sales, but in 2025, that number is expected to rise to 5.2 million. This aligns with the typical post-election rebound we’ve seen in previous years. The increased sales will likely be driven by a combination of factors:

• Increased buyer confidence: As the political uncertainty subsides, more buyers will feel comfortable jumping into the market.
• More sellers entering the market: As sellers become more confident in the stability of the market, they’ll be more likely to list their homes.
• Stabilizing interest rates: While interest rates have fluctuated in recent years, there’s hope that they will stabilize in the post-election period, making mortgages more accessible to buyers.

What to Expect in the Housing Market

For buyers, 2025 is expected to be a year of opportunity. After the election, there will be a more predictable environment, with better clarity on policies that could impact interest rates, taxes, and housing affordability. This will lead to an increase in competition as more buyers enter the market. If you're a buyer, you’ll likely see a higher inventory of homes and more price stability.

For sellers, 2025 could be the perfect time to put your home on the market. With more buyers actively searching for homes, you’ll have a better chance of selling quickly and at a competitive price. However, you may face some competition from other sellers who also wait for the post-election surge.

Why Waiting Until After the Election Could Be a Smart Move

If you’re on the fence about making a move in the housing market, waiting until after the 2024 election could be a smart strategy. Here's why:

1. Increased Market Stability: Post-election, you’ll have more clarity about the economic and political landscape, which can help both buyers and sellers make more informed decisions.

2. More Inventory: As more sellers feel confident about listing their homes, you'll likely see an increase in available properties, giving buyers more options to choose from.

3. Buyer Confidence: Many buyers will wait until after the election to move forward with their plans, leading to a rush of new buyers in the market in early 2025. This increased demand could result in a faster and more profitable sale for sellers.

4. Interest Rate Adjustments: If interest rates stabilize after the election, it could make financing a home purchase more affordable for buyers, which could further boost demand.

Bottom Line: Patience Pays Off in the Housing Market

While it might feel like the housing market is experiencing a slowdown right now due to election-year uncertainty, this is just a temporary dip. History shows that once the election is over and the political landscape becomes clearer, home sales tend to rebound strongly.

If you're considering buying or selling a home, waiting until after the election could position you to take advantage of the post-election surge in the market. With increased buyer confidence, more available homes, and a more predictable economic outlook, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of growth and opportunity for homebuyers and sellers alike.

So, if you're on the fence, know that the market is likely to heat up once the election dust settles—giving you the chance to make your move with more confidence.