Debunking the Myth: How Do Elections Really Affect the Housing Market?

With the 2024 Presidential election looming, you might be wondering: does the outcome of elections influence the housing market? It's a valid concern, especially if you're considering buying or selling a home. Let's dive into what history and experts have to say about this topic to bring clarity amidst the speculation.

Understanding the Impact on Home Sales

During Presidential election years, particularly in November, there tends to be a slight dip in home sales. This hesitation is largely due to the uncertainty that elections bring. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains that while November typically sees slower home sales during election years, this slowdown is short-lived. In fact, data from HUD and NAR indicates that after the majority of Presidential elections, home sales rebounded strongly in December and continued to rise the following year.

Stability in Home Prices Despite Election Years

Contrary to popular belief, home prices do not typically decline during election years. According to Ryan Lundquist, a residential appraiser and housing analyst, the price trends in the housing market remain steady and upward. Analysis from NAR confirms that after most Presidential elections, home prices have shown resilience, continuing their upward trajectory in the subsequent year.

Mortgage Rates: A Key Factor for Homebuyers

Mortgage rates play a crucial role in shaping the affordability of homes. Interestingly, historical data from Freddie Mac reveals that leading up to many past elections, mortgage rates have tended to decrease from July to November. This trend could potentially benefit homebuyers in the near term by lowering monthly mortgage payments.

Practical Insights for Buyers and Sellers

While Presidential elections can create short-term uncertainty, it's important to note that the broader housing market fundamentals remain robust. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, emphasizes that historically, the housing market behaves similarly during election years compared to non-election years. Therefore, for most individuals planning to buy or sell a home, elections should not significantly alter their strategies.

Conclusion: Navigating the Housing Market in Election Years

In conclusion, the impact of Presidential elections on the housing market is generally minimal and transient. While there may be brief periods of uncertainty, historical patterns indicate that the housing market tends to stabilize quickly post-election. Whether you're a buyer or seller, understanding these dynamics can provide confidence in making informed decisions despite the electoral backdrop.

Connect with Real Estate Experts for Personalized Advice

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